The Sunset of the Aviator

"The reality is that there's no U.S. airline that has a sustainable business model if $117-a-barrel oil prices endure."

So says Dave Emerson of Bain & Company's global airline consulting practices, according to yesterday's USA Today.

Ouch. No airline has a sustainable business model? Can we all cross our fingers that they have a sustainable contingency plan?

I rely on air travel a lot. I rely on it to see friends and family who are scattered throughout the country. I am part of a very mobile generation and I get nervous thinking about oil and its impact on mobility (take away the impact of flight on my carbon footprint). We are definitely headed into uncharted territory.

In October 2007, Stephen Dubner over at Freakonomics asked five heavy-hitters what U.S. air travel will look like in ten years. There was a lot of talk about long waits, delays and customer service and not so much talk about oil prices and supplies, which I found a little troubling in a 10-year outlook. Oil is a non-renewable resource, right?

A couple weeks ago, Paul Krugman wrote the op-ed "Running out of Planet to Exploit," in which he talks about the three theories for the staggering oil prices we're seeing:

1. Speculation.
2. Rising prices are due to increased demand from the Chinese, but in time we will locate new oil and prices will come back down.
3. Cheap resources are gone for good. The planet is at the end of its rope.

Krugman seems to think the increased demand plays a role, but that the increases are coming at a time when our fears about oil depletion are becoming more real, making the threat ever more menacing.

What does this mean for the airline industry, for commerce, and for individual mobility?

And what does it mean for conferences, conventions and events?

The Travel Industry Association (TIA) and the International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE) together are holding a summit to discuss "the greatest single strategic threat to the stability of the exhibitions and event industry." U.S. air transportation. Slated for the agenda?

Volume of flights, outstripping the ability of airports to handle them; FAA oversight of maintenance and safety issues; TSA security inefficiencies; aging fleets and archaic air traffic control technology; customs and immigration inefficiencies; delays, cancellations, and lost luggage issues; and industry consolidation; and route cutbacks...

Most of these items are annoyances or inconveniences. I agree that events professionals need to keep their eyes on air. And I agree that inconvenient travel is a problem, but I think inconvenient travel is only the short-term problem. The long-term problem is the sustainability of air travel in the face of increasing prices and diminishing oil reserves.

Rather than trying to prop up an old system, is it time to look into the future of events? Entertainment is digital, news is digital... is it time for a new generation of events? If the airlines don't have a sustainable plan in place, maybe we should.